The La Niña phenomenon is strongly influencing the winter of 2024, and it is expected that it will be colder, wetter and less predictable in the different parts of the world. This is the part of the ENSO cycle and is characterized by cooler than usual sea surface temperatures in the central eastern Pacific Ocean.
Regional Impacts in Winter 2024
North America:
- Northern U.S. and Canada: You should prepare for a colder than average winter with heavier than normal snow and sleet in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes. This is in line with normal La Niña winters when the northern jet stream changes direction, moving cold Arctic air southward.
- Southern U.S.: An increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation is expected especially in the southern and south western states. This could worsen the drought situation especially in the texan and Californian states.
South Asia:
India: La Niña is bringing a harsher winter to northern India, with temperatures dipping significantly below average. States like Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are experiencing extended cold spells and snowfall. In contrast, southern regions are seeing intensified rainfall due to an active northeast monsoon.
Europe:
While La Niña has a relatively small effect on Europe directly, it shifts the jet stream causing colder winters in the United Kingdom and other countries in Northern and central Europe.
Australia and Southeast Asia:
Australia: La Niña tends to make conditions wetter and this is likely to continue throughout summer across the southern hemisphere with the east experiencing flood like conditions.
Africa
East Africa: Increased rainfall is likely to continue, helping alleviate drought conditions. However, parts of southern Africa may face dry spells.
Why is Winter 2024 Different?
In contrast to prior years, La Niña has extended into the third winter, which can be described as ‘Triple Dip’ La Niña. This extended event compounds its impact, raising the propensity for the occurrence of more climate change-related weather events. Longer and more severe cold, stronger and more frequent storms, and unpredictable precipitation increase the risks, exacerbating the pressure on infrastructure, agriculture and energy.
Preparation and Mitigation
Agriculture: Farmers should prepare for changes in the conditions favourable for growing crops, some areas experiencing high humidity while others dry spells.
Infrastructure: Local, provincial and federal governments as well as municipalities need to be ready for contingencies such as storms, floods, and energy requirements.
Disaster Response: Increased preparedness of floods and storms and cold conditions is necessary and can be most urgent in threatened areas.
Conclusion:
The winter of 2024 with the influence of La Niña will be characterized by diverse and extreme weather conditions all over the world. Some regions enjoy high rainfall while others are struggling with problems of severe cold and dryness. It will prove a useful season to remain informed and prepared for whatever may come.